Congress, Climate and Care: What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for Australia’s Environmental Policy

As global leaders brace for Trump’s potential return to the White House in November, many anticipate the several, indirect, but significant effects on environmental laws.

Trump’s re-election might lead to a stronger U.S. stance against international climate agreements, tailored to his will, cajoling dependent judges, conservative allies and other pragmatic counterparts, eagerly mapping out ways to revitalise Trump’s ‘legacy’ in climate isolationism.

Gauging its impact towards Australian frontiers, Trump’s promised withdrawal from both the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will substantially destabilise the global commitment to net zero transition. Where Australia’s efforts to combat climate change are tied to international collaboration, it’s predicted weakening during Trump 2.0 could adversely affect joint initiatives, as Australia prepares to co-host the UN climate conference in 2026.

Decline in US ambition can also serve as a catalyst for Chinese dominance of clean energy industries. The exit of the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter will not only usher China to be a new leading negotiator, but also strengthen negotiating powers of the Global South countries, having the potential of waning Australia’s stance.

Trump 2.0 may inevitably bring a destabilising effect on global climate commitments, which could potentially and indirectly impact Australia’s climate policies and trade relationships.

As the US polls maintain a narrow margin, Trump’s potential return foreshadows Australia’s dilemma.